20 September 2012
Detroit’s win coupled with Chicago’s loss on Wednesday night meant a sizeable uptick in the Tigers’ chances to earn a spot in the postseason festivities. Two games back with 14 games to play is still a large gap, but it’s one that isn’t impossible to bridge. We could all feel that the goal of a Division Crown was more attainable after last night, but Cool Standings and Baseball Prospectus put numbers on it.
According to Cool Standings, the Tigers have a 30.7% chance of making the playoffs (broken down that’s a 27.2% chance of winning the division and a 3.6% chance of a Wild Card berth). That’s up nearly ten full percentage points from a day ago. So pretty much this: flip a coin twice. Did you get two heads? If so, the Tigers are going to win the division. Didn’t get two heads? Well there’s still about a 5% chance they get in anyway.
Baseball Prospectus is slightly more bullish on the Tigers’ chances for October. According to their playoff odds report, Detroit has a 34.9% chance of playing postseason baseball (29.4% to win the division and 5.5% for a Wild Card spot). Yesterday’s results meant a boost of just over 11% to the Tigers’ overall playoff odds. Roll a die. Did you get a one or a two? Then the Tigers are playing extra baseball. Did you get a three or higher? Well then, hopefully 2013 is a good year.Should the Tigers pick up another game on Chicago today I would expect their playoff odds to jump another 10-15 percentage points giving them near-even money odds to reach the playoffs.
Matt Snyder writes about Baseball, Football, and College Basketball. He can be found online as the creator and editor of Forever Faithful, the editor of The Tigers Den, a contributor to Call To The Pen, and a contributor to SideLion Report. He can be reached on Twitter @snyder_matthew.